TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$116

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$116
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:15AM and 2:30AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $112. The total volume for this market is $116. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market shows a more nuanced expectation, with traders assigning probabilities to both upward and downward movements. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. This difference highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and is not directly influenced by external factors or predetermined values. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a responsive and efficient market.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15AM and 2:30AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 2:30AM ET than at 2:15AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The resolution process relies on publicly available financial data to ensure an objective and transparent result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or major stock market corrections could influence investor sentiment and impact the direction of this market. Any surprising news related to central bank gold reserves could also play a role.