TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$73

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$73
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $73, and the total volume traded to date, which is $73. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and how actively this market is being traded. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s future price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and potential scenarios. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty exists or when analysts have conflicting viewpoints. This market provides a dynamic assessment of probabilities, constantly updated as new information becomes available, which can diverge from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information emerges or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly responsive and efficient market for forecasting gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, during the specified 1:45AM-2AM ET time window on October 28th, is higher or lower than its price at the start of that window. The final price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to see whether their predictions aligned with the actual price movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and any significant news regarding gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could all contribute to price volatility and move this market.