TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

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4,415

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$536

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified window. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume of $535. The total volume traded on this market is currently $536. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity is occurring around this specific event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional biases, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant uncertainty surrounds the event. This market allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities, constantly updating as new information becomes available, which can diverge from static analyst reports. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds are determined entirely by trader activity on Predict, and are not influenced by external factors or predetermined probabilities. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 1:45 AM ET than at 1:30 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, are closely watched by gold traders. Even significant shifts in the US dollar's value can influence the gold price, as they are often inversely correlated. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds on this market.