TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,016

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 1:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-1PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$2,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T16:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T16:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity this market has seen recently. Currently, volume is $2,016 and total volume is $2,016. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about whether to buy or sell shares.

Generally, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which can differ from individual analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide specific price targets, this market represents a probabilistic view of whether the price will go up or down by Oct 28, 2026. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. Comparing this market to broader analyst sentiment can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements, but the market’s odds represent a direct measure of belief about the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of gold, as reported by a major financial index, is higher or lower than its price at 12:45 PM - 1:00 PM ET on October 28th. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions by central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or political instability, frequently drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, shifts in currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, and changes in global risk appetite can all contribute to price fluctuations and, consequently, movement within this market. Any significant news impacting these areas could lead to substantial trading activity.