TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,191

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 12:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,179. Total volume for this market is $1,191. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets, offering insights into market sentiment regarding short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and reflect the aggregated judgment of many participants. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, we might expect to see higher odds assigned to the 'Up' outcome in this market, but this isn't always the case. The market can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in traditional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as traders react to news and events. Essentially, the odds reflect the collective assessment of all participants regarding the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:30 PM and 12:45 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 12:45 PM than it was at 12:30 PM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could move this market. Even unexpected statements from key financial figures could cause a shift in trader sentiment and alter the odds of the gold price moving up or down.