TOTAL VOLUME:

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$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,724

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,724
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,689, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,724. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting real money on the outcome. This often leads to a more nuanced and potentially more accurate view of the probability of gold moving up or down. It's common to see discrepancies, as analysts may be subject to biases or rely on lagging indicators, whereas the market dynamically adjusts to new information.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be higher or lower at the specified time. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold rising also increases. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'up' contracts lowers their price and the implied probability. The market efficiently aggregates this collective sentiment into a real-time probability assessment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 12:30AM and 12:45AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 12:45AM ET than at 12:30AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could cause traders to adjust their positions in this market, leading to price fluctuations.