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410,833

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by Oct 28?

Volume:
$1,221

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:15 AM EST

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$1,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1,210. Total volume for this market is $1,221. This information helps traders assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s movement, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked factors or anticipating shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty and disagreement among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. Any price movement, however small, will determine the result.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive significant shifts. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could play a role. Any news impacting investor risk appetite or safe-haven demand is likely to move this market.