TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,158

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM ET on October 28th. It displays the odds of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,128, and the total market volume, which is $1,158. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering varied predictions regarding gold’s short-term trajectory, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a collective assessment of potential price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the market’s implied probabilities, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and sentiment. This difference can be informative for those seeking a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of participants, and the odds dynamically adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their positions. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price moved up or down between 1:15 PM and 1:30 PM ET on October 28th. The final price will be determined by a publicly available and trusted source for gold prices, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders will then be paid out based on the accuracy of their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, are likely to impact investor sentiment and thus the price of gold. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen circumstances could cause a rapid shift in the odds within this market.