TOTAL VOLUME:

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417,059

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$215

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $214. The total volume for this market is $215. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental factors like economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of less quantifiable factors in the collective prediction. It's important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment of the likely gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by traders responding to news, data releases, and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential gold price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on October 28th. An increase in price will favor the 'Up' outcome, while a decrease will favor the 'Down' outcome. The exact price source used for verification will be publicly available at the time of resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could influence investor sentiment and subsequently, the price of gold. Any surprise news related to these factors could lead to substantial shifts in the odds.