TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-12PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,310

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-12PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-12PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:45AM-12PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$46
$1,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,305, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,310. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment surrounding the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic models, this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. This difference can be significant, especially when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in market sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between what experts predict and how traders are behaving in this market, offering a unique insight into potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the market's expectation of the likelihood of the gold price increasing versus decreasing during the specified timeframe. It’s a dynamic system where prices adjust rapidly to new information and trading activity.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45 AM and 12:00 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 12:00 PM ET than at 11:45 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, also tend to drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could impact the market. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite are other key signals to watch that could move this market.