TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$490

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T03:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T03:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $475, and the total volume traded to date, which is $490. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, offering a unique signal about potential price movements. Comparing the two can provide a more nuanced understanding of the possible outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:30 PM ET and 11:45 PM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 11:45 PM ET than it was at 11:30 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, significant currency fluctuations, particularly with the US dollar, and changes in global risk appetite could all contribute to price volatility and, consequently, movement in this market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-holding countries could also have an effect.