TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

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4,340

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5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by Oct 28?

Volume:
$1,177

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$1,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,180. The total volume for this market is $1,177, reflecting the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, as traders weigh factors that may not be fully captured in standard financial models. This difference can be particularly noticeable in short-term markets like this one, where unexpected news events can have an outsized impact.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in one direction or the other. Trading volume provides insight into the confidence level behind these prices.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 11:45 AM ET than it was at 11:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international tensions or major policy announcements, can also trigger volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could impact trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as the resolution date approaches.