TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$976

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:15 AM and 11:30 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $973. The total volume for this market is $976, indicating overall interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. These probabilities often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which may be based on fundamental or technical analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, as this market aggregates diverse perspectives and incorporates real-time information from traders. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises relative to conventional expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:15 AM and 11:30 AM ET on October 28th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure an objective and transparent result.

Several factors could influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or interest rate changes could significantly move the market. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also play a role.