TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,445

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a live view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,452. The total volume traded to date is $1,445, giving you a sense of overall market interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view of potential price movement. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on gold, you might see higher prices in this market, but discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the inclusion of unforeseen factors. It’s valuable to compare both viewpoints when forming your own opinion on where the gold price is headed.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to gold increasing in value, with higher prices signifying greater confidence in an upward move. This dynamic pricing mechanism provides a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 28th. If the price is higher at 10:15 AM than at 10:00 AM, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a shift in market sentiment. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they have the potential to create substantial price volatility and affect trading activity in this market.