TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$347

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$20
$347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T02:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T02:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity this market has seen recently. Currently, the volume is $344, and the total volume is $347. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential opportunities within this specific prediction market.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or individual analyst predictions. This can lead to differences in probabilities assigned to various outcomes. If analysts are largely predicting a gold price decrease, we might see higher odds favoring a 'Gold Down' outcome in this market, or vice versa, depending on the strength and breadth of that consensus. It’s a fascinating way to gauge collective belief.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their expectations. The current market reflects the aggregated sentiment of participants on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final price of gold between 10:45 PM and 11:00 PM ET on October 28th will be compared to its price at 10:45 PM ET to determine if it moved up or down. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized financial source, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds.