TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$776

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$98
$776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:45 AM and 11:00 AM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $778. The total volume for this market is $776. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s short-term trajectory. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical factors, this market suggests a more nuanced expectation. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data or unforeseen events influencing trader sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, adjusting their positions and influencing the price.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the spot price of gold at 11:00 AM ET on October 28th is higher or lower than its price at 10:45 AM ET. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome for this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or surprising diplomatic developments, could also drive investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.