TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$352

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 10:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:30PM and 10:45PM ET on October 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $353. The total volume for this market is $352, indicating the overall interest from traders. This information helps you understand where the crowd currently believes the price is headed.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on fundamental economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential influences. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in the short-term, as traders react to real-time news and sentiment. This market provides a unique, forward-looking assessment that may diverge from conventional expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. The current spread between the buy and sell price indicates the market's uncertainty.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:30 PM and 10:45 PM ET on October 28th. The market will determine if the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual price movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could move this market. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they are all potential catalysts for price movement.