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417,059

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Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,097

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,095, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,097. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, varying risk tolerances, or the inclusion of information not readily available to analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate outcomes that diverge from consensus expectations, offering a unique signal beyond standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, providing a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations. Traders adjust their positions based on new information, leading to constant price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:30 AM and 10:45 AM Eastern Time on October 28th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data at the close of the specified timeframe.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar are key drivers. Any surprising news related to central bank activity or major gold-holding nations could also lead to substantial shifts in the market’s odds.