TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$4,035

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $4,012, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4,035. This provides a comprehensive view of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unexpected developments. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a forecasting tool like this market.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official price of gold between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 9:15 AM ET than at 9:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The specific data source will be a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness will also be a key factor to watch.