TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$647

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$356
$647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $647 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $644. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how trading activity is evolving as the event approaches. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are pricing the potential price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, unique insights held by traders, or simply a greater sensitivity to short-term market dynamics. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls or expert predictions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated sentiment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price essentially represents the probability that the market assigns to the outcome. Higher prices indicate a stronger belief in that outcome, while lower prices suggest greater uncertainty or a leaning towards the alternative.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:45 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET on October 27th. An increase in price will settle the ‘up’ outcome, while a decrease will settle the ‘down’ outcome. The precise price change will be verified against widely recognized financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations could play a role. Any news related to central bank activity, particularly regarding gold reserves, could also move this market, as could major trading activity from large institutional investors.