TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,685

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$1,685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,668. The total volume for this market is $1,685, indicating the overall interest from traders. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it's evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering price targets and directional predictions, this market represents a collective judgment of informed traders putting their capital at risk. Often, this market can provide an earlier signal of changing expectations than traditional surveys or media reports. It's important to note that analysts’ views are opinions, whereas this market reflects actual financial commitments, offering a unique signal regarding the likely price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM Eastern Time on October 27th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any significant news regarding central bank policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold.