TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7PM-7:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$579

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 7:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7PM-7:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7PM and 7:15PM ET on October 27th. You’ll see the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $576. The total volume for this market is $579. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders assigning significant probability to both potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis and long-term projections, whereas this market focuses on a very specific, short-term window. This difference in scope can lead to discrepancies between the two.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the gold price increasing, and traders can use this information to make informed trading decisions. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will climb.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7PM and 7:15PM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 7:15PM ET than at 7PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major regions or surprise policy announcements from central banks, are also likely to impact the gold price. Furthermore, major news regarding gold mining production or significant purchases/sales by large institutional investors could also cause fluctuations in this market. Any developments impacting risk appetite or safe-haven demand will be closely watched.