TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$605

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$214
$605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, as well as the total volume traded, currently at $605, and the 24-hour volume, which is $605. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in this particular prediction market. The dashboard also displays price history, offering insight into how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may offer price targets for gold based on macroeconomic factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view of the likelihood of price movement. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases; analysts may be influenced by their firm’s positions, while traders in this market have skin in the game and are directly incentivized to make accurate predictions. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Trading volume and order flow drive these price changes, creating a dynamic and responsive market. The higher the volume, the more confident traders are in their predictions, and the more reliable the price signal becomes.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 7:30 AM ET than at 7:15 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome wins. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome prevails. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations, particularly from the Federal Reserve, can affect the attractiveness of gold as an investment. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.