TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$188

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5PM-5:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $187, and the total volume traded to date, which is $188. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and the level of interest in this particular market. The dashboard helps visualize market sentiment and activity.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts often rely on specific models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the aggregated predictions of many individuals with diverse information and perspectives. This difference highlights the value of prediction markets as a complementary source of insight.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, reacting to news and events, which drives the price movement and reflects the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting the direction of gold.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 PM and 5:15 PM ET on October 27th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, are also key drivers. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding interest rate policy can create substantial market volatility. Even unexpected news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could move this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.