TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5AM-5:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,478

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:15 AM EST

predict

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5AM-5:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$572
$1,478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market provides a real-time view of trader sentiment. You’ll find the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe, along with a price history chart illustrating how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,461, and the total market volume, which is $1,478. This information helps you understand how the crowd is currently assessing the likely direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, potentially offering a unique signal about the true probabilities at play. Examining these differences can be a valuable part of your research process.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 AM and 5:15 AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 5:15 AM ET than at 5:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could shift sentiment. Finally, any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move this market.