TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,049

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$120
$2,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,037, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,049. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and how actively this market is being traded. The dashboard is designed to give you a clear understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently issue price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate movements before they are widely recognized by analysts, or to offer a contrarian view when analysts are largely in agreement. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by user activity and doesn’t rely on external factors or predetermined formulas. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely align with the prevailing sentiment of those actively trading.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM Eastern Time on October 27th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Up,’ while a price decrease will favor those who predicted ‘Down.’ The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched. Finally, significant fluctuations in the US dollar's value can inversely affect gold prices, as they are often priced in dollars.