TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$149

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $149, and the total volume traded to date, which is $149. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend for gold due to global economic uncertainty, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, as the market dynamically adjusts to new information and sentiment. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by Oct 27, 2026. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold increasing rises. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, making it a real-time gauge of market expectations. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the gold price increasing during the specified timeframe.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price on October 27th and the closing price at 5:45 PM ET. A price increase will result in a payout for those who bet on 'up', while a price decrease or stagnation will result in a payout for those who bet on 'down'. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several key signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating international tensions or unexpected political developments, could also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing nations or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also influence trading activity in this market.