TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,751

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$123
$1,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T09:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $1,751—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,748. This allows you to see how sentiment is shifting and gauge the market’s expectations for the price of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of trading activity and helps you understand the collective forecast.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen based on available information. This differs from analyst forecasts, which are based on individual expertise and models. While analysts may offer specific price targets, this market provides a probabilistic view of whether the price will simply go up or down within the defined timeframe. Comparing the implied probability from this market to the directional expectations of financial analysts can offer a broader perspective on potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict, and changes as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. Trading volume is a key indicator of confidence in the prevailing odds, and can signal potential turning points in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of gold, as reported by a leading financial data provider, moved up or down between 5:30 AM and 5:45 AM Eastern Time on October 27th. The final price will be compared to the opening price at 5:30 AM ET to determine the direction of movement, and the outcome will reflect that determination.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any major news related to global economic stability or currency fluctuations could also move this market.