TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,433

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$8
$1,433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 27th. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,433. The total volume traded to date is $1,433, providing insight into overall market interest. This allows you to quickly assess the sentiment surrounding potential gold price fluctuations.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate unexpected events or sentiment shifts more rapidly than traditional forecasts. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market, and it dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available or sentiment changes. This creates a real-time estimate of the probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 27th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against trusted financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major news regarding central bank policies, particularly related to interest rates, could trigger price movements. Changes in investor sentiment, driven by news headlines or social media trends, could also play a role in shifting the odds in this market.