TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,034

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$90
$1,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,025, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,034. This provides a clear visual representation of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is designed to give traders a quick overview of the market’s dynamics.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued period of volatility for gold, this market’s participants are expressing their own views through their trades. It’s common to see divergences between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the odds on Predict. These differences can stem from varying interpretations of economic indicators, geopolitical events, or simply differing risk appetites among traders and analysts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the collective judgment of all participants actively trading in the market, rather than being determined by a fixed formula or external source. The current market price indicates the probability of the outcome as perceived by traders.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:45 AM and 5:00 AM Eastern Time on October 27th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who bet on 'Down'. The final price movement will be sourced from reliable financial data providers to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing nations or significant shifts in global currency valuations could also create volatility. Monitoring these events will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds for this market.