TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$489

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between now and Oct 27, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $492, and the total overall volume traded to date, which is $489. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about gold's performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This can lead to a more accurate forecast, as traders are incentivized to be correct. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, especially when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in market sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its forecast accordingly. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 4:30PM-4:45PM ET window on October 27th. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify this information against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade tensions, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also influence trading activity. Any surprise announcements related to central bank policies regarding gold reserves could also move this market.