TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$602

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$602
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history as trading progresses. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $592, and the total volume traded to date, which is $602. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable gold price given recent economic indicators, this market shows traders are assigning a probability to significant movement up or down. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and react quickly to new information. This divergence can be a valuable signal for those seeking a broader understanding of potential outcomes beyond standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting greater confidence in a particular direction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 AM and 4:30 AM ET on October 27th. A verified price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a price decrease or no change will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or currency fluctuations could influence trading activity in this market. Any news that alters the perceived risk environment or economic outlook could lead to substantial shifts in the odds.