TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

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4,415

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3PM-3:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$555

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 3:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3PM-3:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$499
$555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3PM and 3:15PM ET on October 27th. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $553. Total volume for this market is $555. This allows traders to quickly assess the market's sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders assessing a short-term price movement. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated based on new developments. This can provide a valuable alternative viewpoint when considering potential outcomes for the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the evolving expectations of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of the probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final price of gold between 3PM and 3:15PM ET on October 27th will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for gold pricing data, ensuring an objective and transparent result for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive safe-haven demand for gold. Even significant movements in the US dollar or interest rate expectations could trigger shifts in the gold price. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.