TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$366

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $365, and the total overall volume traded to date, which is $366. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and how much activity is occurring in this market. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick snapshot of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may issue buy or sell recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their mouths are. Often, this leads to a more accurate prediction, as traders are incentivized to be correct. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when significant uncertainty surrounds the event, but this market offers a unique, real-time assessment of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as conditions change. Essentially, the market price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:45 PM ET and 4:00 PM ET on October 27th. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The specific price change will be verified against publicly available financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could cause substantial price movements. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also move this market.