TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$801

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$492
$801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by Oct 27, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $802. The total volume for this market is $801. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on how others are positioning themselves before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical instability and inflation concerns, this market’s probabilities suggest a more nuanced outlook. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, potentially incorporating information not readily available to or considered by traditional financial analysts. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by forecasting with a diverse group of participants.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more people buy contracts predicting an increase, the price of those contracts rises, and vice versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders on Predict regarding the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures the market probabilities are constantly updated based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30 PM and 3:45 PM ET on October 27th. The direction of the price movement will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared the winner. The resolution process relies on publicly available financial data to ensure an objective and transparent result for this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing nations or significant shifts in global currency valuations could also influence trading activity in this market and cause probabilities to shift.