TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,436

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$109
$1,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,436, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,424. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on individual models and subjective interpretations. While analysts may offer varying predictions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, providing a real-time probability assessment based on actual money at stake. It’s important to note that prediction markets often outperform polls and expert opinions in forecasting real-world outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants, offering a unique perspective on potential price fluctuations.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30AM and 3:45AM ET on October 27th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data and verified for accuracy.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, can significantly affect investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of gold. Any news impacting global risk appetite could move this market.