TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$548

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$170
$548
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $546, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which is $548. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity as traders react to news and information related to gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer price targets based on economic models, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential influencing factors. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, unforeseen events, or simply the collective intuition of traders. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 27th. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price movement will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investments in gold could cause substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market.