TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,017

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$53
$1,017
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:15PM and 2:30PM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a live view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $1,017, with $1,014 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, and the odds reflect the probability of each outcome as determined by traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their views. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most current expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15PM and 2:30PM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 2:30PM ET than at 2:15PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major regions or surprising political developments, often drive investors to safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could also trigger price movements. A sudden shift in the US dollar's strength or weakness will also likely impact the gold price.