TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$84

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$84
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $83. The total volume for this market is $84, indicating overall interest. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price changes.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting continued volatility due to macroeconomic factors, this market reflects a real-time assessment of probabilities based on traders’ collective judgment. It's important to note that analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, whereas this market provides a probabilistic forecast. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, information access, and biases inherent in each approach, offering a valuable comparison point for informed decision-making.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM ET on October 27th. If the price increases during that period, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the ‘down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, could also drive substantial movements. Additionally, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve are key catalysts. Finally, any surprising news regarding major gold-holding countries or significant demand fluctuations could impact trader sentiment and, therefore, the odds in this market.