TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$122

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 1:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a history of price fluctuations, reflecting how traders are assessing the likelihood of each outcome. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $123, and the total volume traded to date, which stands at $122. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific timeframe for gold.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering varied predictions based on macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a different type of informed opinion. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts often represent a single point of view, whereas this market represents the collective belief of many participants. Examining both sources can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment, making it a responsive indicator of expectations for gold’s performance.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial index, is higher or lower at 1:15 AM ET on October 27th than it was at 1:00 AM ET on the same day. The final price difference will determine which outcome is considered correct, and all contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor reliable financial news sources for the official price data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could influence trading activity. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite are also key factors to watch as they frequently correlate with gold price movements.