TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$763

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$763
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $767, and the total volume traded to date, which is $763. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously as traders buy and sell contracts.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls and expert opinions, offering a unique and potentially valuable signal about future price movements. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants and provides a forward-looking indicator of potential price movement. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is represented in the contract prices available on the platform.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 1:45AM-2:00AM ET timeframe on October 27th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and the corresponding contracts will be settled accordingly. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also move the market. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on investor sentiment is crucial for understanding the fluctuations in this market.