TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$421

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $420, and the total market volume, which is $421. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price change.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of subjective factors, or simply the market identifying overlooked information. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering a unique signal about the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability of each outcome as perceived by the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward movement. Trading volume influences how quickly the price adjusts to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 1:30AM-1:45AM ET window on October 27th. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could influence investor sentiment. Any surprise announcements related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also trigger price movements and affect trading activity in this market.