TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

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2,983,476,643

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$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

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4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$469

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $469—and the 24-hour volume, which is $468. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving insight into evolving expectations.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. The market’s implied probability of gold going up or down may align with, or diverge from, the consensus view of financial analysts, providing a unique data point for those following the gold market. It's a fascinating comparison to see how crowd-sourced predictions stack up against expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price adjusts based on supply and demand; more buyers push the price of the ‘up’ contract higher, while more sellers push it lower. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds reflect real-time market sentiment and the willingness of traders to take on risk. The current volume traded provides an indication of how much conviction traders have in their predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 12:15 PM ET than at 12:00 PM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major central banks, can also drive volatility. Even significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could move this market. Keep an eye on news related to these areas, as they are all potential catalysts for price movements in the gold market leading up to Oct 27, 2026.