TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

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4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$750

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$6
$750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:15AM and 1:30AM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a live view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $752. The total volume for this market is $750, indicating the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on fundamental analysis and economic models, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders responding to real-time information and their own risk assessments. The degree to which this market diverges from conventional wisdom can be an interesting signal in itself.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'yes' and 'no' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty among traders and the intensity of their convictions.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 1:15AM and 1:30AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 1:30AM ET than at 1:15AM ET, the 'yes' contracts will pay out. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'no' contracts will pay out. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating conflicts or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds in this market.