TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$451

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$451
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-28T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the historical price action of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $441, and the total volume traded to date, which is $451. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued upward trend in gold prices due to global economic uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view. The collective wisdom of traders on Predict may be factoring in variables not fully captured in standard economic models, such as short-term market sentiment or unexpected geopolitical events. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. The market's efficiency relies on informed traders actively participating and updating their beliefs.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:00 PM ET and 10:15 PM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 10:15 PM ET than at 10:00 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could have a substantial impact. A sudden shift in the US dollar's strength or weakness could also trigger price movement in this market.