TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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4,340

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,416

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$948
$2,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 27th. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,378. The total volume traded to date is $2,416. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of the gold price going up or down during that specific timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are providing directional guidance on gold’s potential performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of perspectives and real-time adjustments based on new information. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective prediction, as the market can rapidly incorporate factors that analysts may overlook or underestimate. This provides a unique signal that isn't available from traditional sources.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on October 27th. If the price is higher at 10:30AM ET than at 10:15AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, also tend to influence investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could trigger substantial price movements and, therefore, shifts in this market's odds. Keep an eye on these factors for potential catalysts.