TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by Oct 26?

Volume:
$1,425

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $1,428, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,425. This provides a snapshot of how actively traders are participating in this market.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a distinct perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are offering price targets and directional guidance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time sentiment and potential reactions to breaking news. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and expert opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing the gold price. It’s a valuable tool for gauging market confidence beyond standard financial analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 9:15 AM than at 9:00 AM, the ‘up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from widely recognized financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising statements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the gold price movement market.