TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,344

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$2,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,337. The total volume for this market is $2,344. This information allows traders to assess market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions or the market’s ability to react more quickly to new information. It's common to see this market diverge from the consensus view presented in polls and financial news reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market for forecasting the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM Eastern Time on October 26th. Whether the price increases or decreases during that period will determine which outcome is considered correct. The market will then settle based on this verified price movement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, central bank announcements regarding interest rates or monetary policy could trigger substantial price movements. Any surprising news related to major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also move this market.