TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-8AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,003

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-8AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-8AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-8AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$1,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 26th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $1,003, with $1,005 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity related to this specific timeframe.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. The question of whether prediction markets outperform expert opinions is a subject of ongoing debate, but many find the market’s dynamic pricing to be a valuable signal, especially when compared to prevailing polls and expert predictions regarding short-term price fluctuations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants, and the market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome and profit from their insights.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 8:00 AM ET than at 7:45 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data used for verification will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, frequently affects investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprising announcements or events in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.