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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,551

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$11
$2,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history as traders buy and sell contracts. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,543, and the total market volume, which is $2,551. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may not always align perfectly with traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable gold price, others anticipate volatility due to macroeconomic factors. This market allows you to see where the crowd stands in comparison to those expert opinions. It's a dynamic comparison, as the odds shift with new information and trader activity, offering a real-time alternative perspective to conventional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing during the specified window. Higher prices suggest a stronger belief in an upward movement, while lower prices indicate a greater expectation of a decrease.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM ET on October 26th. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM ET than at 7:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could trigger price movements. Any significant news related to central bank policies or major gold-holding nations could also cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market.